Washington
CNN
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The Trump administration strives for immigration – legally and otherwise – the stage for potential labor shortages, weaker economic growth and higher inflation.
President Donald Trump announced a flurry of immigration policy immediately after the end of January, many of them were aimed at curbing illegal entries – a core principle of his presidential campaign. But he has also been demolished from legal roads, such as closing the asylum search process on the border between the US and Mexico and the cancellation of flights for refugees that had already been examined.
“The reality is that we depend on immigrant work in this country and Trump’s policy can have enormous consequences for many industries,” Jorge Loweee, director of programs at the American Immigration Council, told CNN.
In the past, Trump said that he would welcome legal immigrants and says: “We must have the quality people who come in” on his second day at the office. Last week he unveiled a visa program “Gold Card” For rich foreigners to live and work in the US.
But various experts say CNN that legal immigration is expected to decrease during Trump’s second term, because his administration promotes an enemy environment for immigrants through its policy and messages, which could lead to less available employees in industries and higher inflation. There are already signs of slowing down legal immigration.
“It has been surprisingly quiet,” Melissa Lopez, a lawyer and executive director of Estrella del Paso Immigration Legal Services Firm, told CNN. “I’ve been doing this here for 17 and a half years here in El Paso, and this feels low.”
Because Americans have fewer children, the population is starting to age. This means that healthcare is increasingly desperate for employees to take care of the elderly. And industries that depend on younger people, including construction and agriculture, need staff.
Economists say that immigration is the solution that America’s economy needs. That’s a dilemma – because the White House says immigration is The problem.
Legal immigration to the US was deposited in 2020 due to limitations from the Pandemic era, but climbed sharp in the coming years.
Last year, around 2.8 million people emigrated legally to the United States, according to the Census Bureau. This includes refugees and those who enter the country through employee visa, accounting for 84% of the population growth of the country in 2024.
A report from the right -loving Cato Institute that was released last month argued that the high degree of immigration of today Trump “gives more room to implement limitations” because it tries to “shaten his nativist basis and the nationalist political class by reducing legal immigration.”
“I expect that we will see further limitations against the summer,” says David Bier, director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute. The Trump government is considering appealing to a public health order that labels migrants on the southern border in search of asylum as risks for spreading diseases – a power officials who are used during the pandemic to close the border.
Allianz Trading predicts legal immigration to be reduced by almost half in 2026. In combination with massive deportations, that delay in immigration can lead to population growth falling by 0.2% that year.
Jennifer Babaie, director of advocacy and legal services at Las Americas Immigrant Advocacy Center, said she expected that it is “much more difficult for people to request everything” in the coming years, making the number of people successfully emigrating to the US legally.
“We expect delays, both because staff in court has fallen as well as because (immigration and customs) staff and financing are in danger,” said Babaie. “We are now also spending hours in detention to just interview people to understand people to understand what is going on, because we do not get information or cooperation between the administration, and that cuts in the time that we could work on a complicated assignment.”
There were 47.8 million immigrants in the United States in 2023, with a total of $ 1.7 trillion in purchasing power and who paid around $ 652 billion in taxes, according to the American Immigration Council. That economic power runs the risk of Trump’s immigration agenda.
The trading forecast of the Allianz estimates that Trump’s occurrence against illegal and legal immigration could withstand the GDP to an annual growth rate of less than 2% in 2026. The Brookings Institution estimates that the growth could be 0.4 percentage point this year, if Trump continues to limit the legal immigration. On the campaign track, Trump said that he “probably wants to deport 15 million and perhaps no less than 20 million” people, which would be a complicated and expensive company.
Immigrants include more than 20% of employment in agriculture, construction, transport, storage, general services and waste services, estimates the American Immigration Council. This means that employers in those industries are expected to be in a binding as Trump continues with mass deportations and limiting legal immigration.
“These industries have very tight labor markets, so very restrictive and aggressive about immigration, Trump will not give the economic growth and success he wants,” said Giovanni Peri, professor of economics at the University of California, Davis, who studies the intersection of immigration and labor.
Peri said that labor shortages, encouraged by a clamp on immigration, could lead to rising prices for food, housing and tourism. He added that immigration companies are essential, also because of the changing demography of the country.
“In a situation where many more Americans are retiring, more immigration would really benefit the labor market and the growth of the economy,” said Peri.
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